Good evening to all of our wonderful followers across the The Evansville Metro/Tri-State and lower Ohio Valley region. Clouds are currently on the increase across the region, overcast in some areas.
The main focus this week, will be the chances for strong to possibly severe storms, mainly south of the Ohio river across western and south central Kentucky, where a MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK is up for Tuesday. Areas north of the river in the I-64 corridor of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana (Including the Evansville Metro) can expect to see just some non-severe garden variety showers and thunderstorms how it currently appears.
The potential severe threat for Tuesday is much lesser than last week. Marginally severe hail is currently the main potential hazard. Can't rule out an isolated damaging wind gust.
Rainfall amounts through early Tuesday evening will generally average under an inch. Could see slightly higher totals over parts of western Kentucky in areas that receive heaviers showers and storms.
NAM 3km Future Radar for Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday evening, shows showers and possible thunderstorms rolling through the lower Ohio Valley, with pockets of moderate to heavy rain.
Wednesday and Thursday look like the two best days of the week and will provide an opportunity to get and get some yard work done. Highs will reach the lower to middle 60's across the region on Wednesday. Lower 70's for highs on Thursday. Temperatures reaching the upper 60's for extreme southwest Ohio.
There some signals in that data that we are watching for Friday into Saturday for the potential for severe weather. Note....Uncertainty remains rather high in regards to where the greatest instability sets up. Although this is still 4 days out, both the ECMWF and GFS differ on the amount of instability and where the greatest sets up across the region. Outside of any potential severe threat, heavy rainfall will be the overall concern.
The CIP Analogs (GEFS Data) currently hints at the severe potential. Again, as of this posting, uncertainty remains high and this is not set in stone. The Storm Prediction Center does make mention of the uncertainty on day 5 (Friday) and currently does not have any areas outlined due to the uncertainty. That could change depending on how things evolve.
We are in the midst of a warming trend that really ramps up for Thursday and Friday, as high temperatures in the Evansville Metro & Tri-State climb into the lower and middle 70's. North and south-central Kentucky will see highs approaching the 80 degree mark. High temperatures reaching the upper 60's to lower 70's in southwest Ohio.
That's gonna do it for today's blog. Stay tuned to Metro Weather Watch throughout the week for more updates. Be sure and visit the page daily and interact on our post. This will ensure that you keep seeing our updates in your news feed. -Tony
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