Good afternoon! Hope everyone is enjoying the eve of Christmas eve. It's been a very windy and blustery, where winds at times have gust over 40 mph at times, especially over southern Illinois. As we head into the evening and overnight hours, we will continue to see those strong surface winds, with gust to 35 mph.
A lot of people are wondering if we will see a white Christmas. We still have models not in agreement. A couple out there, still showing the potential. With a small degree of uncertainty, we will keep an eye on it for your. IF some moisture was to change over to snow, any accumulations would be less than a quarter of an inch.
The 20z run of the HRRR simulated future radar gets all of the moisture out of here, well ahead of the arctic air.
The NAM 3 km simulated future radar for this evening and tonight, does not pick it up too well, but the arctic air will catch up to some of the rain after midnight and change the rain over to a light wintry mix, which may cause wet spots on area road freeze and become slippery. A flash freeze is more likely on bridges/overpasses and elevated surfaces.
The GEFS 20 ensemble members are the most aggressive and giving parts of the area some hope, but has no backing of the other models. Any chances of a white Christmas are pretty much slim.
Cold arctic air arrives after midnight. Overnight lows will dip into the middle and upper 20's for southern Illinois, southern Indiana, Western, north-central and south-central Kentucky to southwest Ohio. High temperatures on Christmas Eve will struggle to get out of the lower 30's. Overnight Christmas Eve, bitter cold low temperatures in the lower to middle teens. Highs on Christmas Day in the lower to middle 20's.
Wind Chill indices Thursday night into Friday morning may go as low as zero to -2 below.
That's gonna do it for this blog. We hope everyone has a safe and Merry Christmas. Follow Metro Weather Watch daily, for updates. Covering southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western, north-central and south-central Kentucky to southwest Ohio.
-Certified Forecaster Tony M
We are your #1 source for weather!