Good morning! We continue to watch the trends for the potential for some accumulating snow or an all rain event Sunday night through Monday night. Models are currently not in agreement on how things will play out. We look at potential setup #1.......
The ECMWF (European model) continues to paint a scenario where we start as snow, go to a mix, over to some rain and then end as snow.
I normally do not show snow maps this far out, but since this is a blog and we are inside the 5 day forecast period, I will show you what could possibly be the end result, should this scenario play out. The ECMWF model wants to lay down a light snowfall across parts of the coverage area from southern Illinois, southern Indiana, northwest and northern Kentucky. Again, this is not a forecast! I'm just showing you the ECMWF models potential scenario.
Then we have the 06z run of the GFS, which starts as snow, then goes over to a brief mix for some of us and then to all rain as the low pressure starts to track much further north and west. This is a scenario that I am currently leaning on the ECMWF model to trend towards. This scenario does not give eastern Kentucky any snow, if it verify's. Still a few days out. The GFS could also follow the ECMWF models trend, with the low tracking further south, which would translate to accumulating snow or a mix for some of us. Lots of uncertainty at this time, as we head into the end of the week. A lot can change!
As you can see with the more northern storm track, with the GFS, the potential snowfall totals are more northwest of our region. Again, take these snow maps like a grain of snow. This is not a Metro Weather Watch snowfall forecast. I am just showing you current model trend scenario's.
There is ZERO model agreement at this time. This is something that we will be watching over the next few days. The models will begin to give us a better idea, as we head into the weekend and closer to the rain and or snow potential.
That's it for now. Stay tuned for more updates!
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