Good Evening!
While the weather for this weekend looks to be busy, what about next weekend? What precipitation type could we see? It is important to note this entire forecast will heavily rely on a Low system that looks to hit on Wednesday, Jan. 15. Mainly rain showers seem to be associated with this system. Furthermore, the GFS seems to be trending much colder at the beginning then smooths out at the end of my forecast period. You will notice this after comparing the GFS and GEFS temperatures. This means I will rely more on the GEFS ensemble rather than the GFS for temperature.
After a Low system passes over the Lower Ohio Valley and Midwest on January 15, temperatures are expected to be colder. Friday, Jan. 17 seems to look slightly warmer than Thursday, Jan. 16. High temps look to be in the mid to upper 30s with lows around the lower 30s for Friday, Jan. 17. Clouds will still be in the sky as another shower system will move in on Saturday.
Saturday, Jan. 18 looks to have high temps in the lower 40s, and lows in the mid-30s. Since moisture is in the air and on the ground, this is the reason why another set of showers can extend from the Gulf to the Lower Ohio Valley. According to the GFS model run, it predicts rain. However, it will be on and off with more showers being on Sunday.
On Sunday, Jan. 19, high temps seem to reach the upper 40s and lows in the upper 30s. Most of the showers do not begin until noon, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some during the morning as other models come into play much later next week. They will be on and off all day and will not intensify until Monday.
Rain will progress into Monday, Jan 20 and will last most of the day. High temps seem to reach the lower to mid-40s, and lows in the upper 20s reaching 30. Showers seem to intensify during lunchtime and after lunch for a short time frame. Severity should be minimal because it will be mostly South of the Evansville Metro and Tri-state area.
In conclusion, we will be dealing with a few shortwaves next week. Total rainfall amounts might accumulate to 2-3 inches or more. It is still early to predict currently. Flooding is possible for Sunday and Monday for this Low system depending on how quickly or slowly it moves across the area. The confidence in my forecast is below average because I am analyzing 2 models that have slightly different views on temperature. In simple terms, this forecast will depend on the previous Low system. Temperatures may be slightly adjusted as we get closer. Enjoy the rest of your day!
Meteorologist Sean Danaher
Keeping you informed at home or on the go!
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