As we end January going into the beginning of February, the weather may continue with colder temperatures next weekend.
After a potential Low system bombards the midwest next Wednesday/Thursday, cold air will dominate most of this forecast. It will be one of the driving forces that will cause colder temperatures and another shortwave to form next weekend. According to the GFS, it seems that rain will be associated with next week's Low system. Keep in mind the GFS shows that this system is well developed. However, changes will likely occur as new runs from the GFS and more models are included. That being said:
Friday, Jan. 31 may have high temps in the mid-40s with low temps in the lower 30s. The GFS does show a small band of showers on Friday. This would be from potential snow evaporating from the Northwest being picked due to slight warming. With this small band of showers passing through, another shortwave will form and quickly move across the midwest. It will be the second reason why colder temperatures may enter next weekend. Thus, Saturday, Feb. 1 may have high temps in the mid-30s while low temps may be in the upper 20s. Sunday, Feb. 2 could have high temps in the mid-30s, and low temps almost reaching 30. However, warm temps will try to fight back.
According to the GFS, a warmer temperature from the southwest can be seen entering the midwest. This implies that Monday, Feb. 3 may have high temps in the upper 40s with low temps in the mid-40s. However, I don’t feel fully convinced because that is too far out to know what may happen. The GFS ensemble hints at warming while the GEFS ensemble hints at cooling.
Therefore, it is still up for question.
In conclusion, it seems like a longwave will be followed up by a shortwave next week. This will make temperatures fairly similar to what we are experiencing now. However, keep in mind that changes will likely happen with how the Low-system develops next week which will influence next weekend. The confidence in this forecast is below average because each Low-system that passes will influence what happens next.
Meteorologist Sean Danaher
Keeping you informed at home or on the go!
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