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EXTENDED FORECAST (1/3/20 – 1/6/20)


Merry Christmas!

While Christmas will be extremely nice and warm, the beginning of January 2020 will have a fluctuation of temperatures back in the Evansville Metro and Tri-state area next weekend. According to the GFS, Friday, Jan. 3 seems to have high temps in the lower to mid-20s and low temps in the mid to upper teens. The Southeast lower Kentucky area will just be getting out of potential snow, but that does not mean Evansville may see a flake or two. If any, the evidence points to early Thursday morning on January 2, 2020. However, it really depends on how much the colder air will extend over Evansville. From observing the GEFS ensemble model, it shows signs of colder air situated higher up in the atmosphere. Though the problem is since we are entering the backside of this Low system overnight, it will be difficult for moisture to reach the ground because of dryer air moving across. Furthermore, it will depend on how this system evolves. Therefore, I am unsure if the snow will fall during the early hours on Friday morning. The rest of Friday should be only cloudy with winds likely from the West.

Saturday, Jan. 4 has high temps in the upper 40s, and low temps in the lower to mid-40s. You may notice the high and low temps are very close together. This is because of another Low system sweeping across overnight Saturday. The beginning of Saturday morning will still be cold, the temperatures will quickly increase into the upper 40s and reaching 50s by the afternoon to overnight. The GFS does not show any precipitation falling. This model believes enough moisture will be enough to precipitate as rain by Sunday morning Jan. 5. The Evansville Metro is just out of reach for any potential rain while the lower Tri-state has it. However, as we get closer and include more models, I think this will change and include the Evansville Metro.

Sunday, Jan. 5 will have high temps in the upper 30 reaching 40 and low temps in the mid to upper 20s. As I mentioned earlier, rain should be over the lower Tri-state area during Sunday morning. One thing I want to point out is this may be a potential thunderstorm or isolated thunderstorm early in the morning and becomes more likely as this system moves East. The lower Tri-state area could potentially be in range during the early morning. I want to point this out because of cooler temperatures quickly warming within 12-24hrs, and winds just from looking at the GFS. It should not be severe, but you never know.


Monday, Jan. 6 has high temps in the upper 30s and low temps in the upper 20s. Colder temperatures will resume after the Low system passes Sunday, Jan. 5. Cloud cover will most likely be partly cloudy during the morning into the afternoon because another set of clouds will move into the area. This is from another Low system west of Evansville which is from the Oklahoma Low. According to the GFS, a rain to snow overnight Monday for Southern Illinois and Indiana could happen because of the amount of moisture North and East of it. We will keep an eye on the development of this system over time.


Next week, the atmosphere awakens with multiple Low systems moving across according to the 12Z GFS model run. However, since the new 18Z GFS model run is finished, it has a very different prediction. After observing both, I have analyzed that the 12Z GFS has become more in tune with the European Ensemble while the 18Z GFS has become accustomed to the GEFS Ensemble. The 18Z GFS model shows no rain potential at all next weekend because it believes most of any Low system is staying South over the Gulf coast. This becomes a problem because the Oklahoma Low does not even happen in the 18Z GFS model run on Tuesday, Jan. 7. It predicts the Low will be further North into Canada. In the simplest terms, I put my forecast in the hands of the 12Z GFS model because I believe another cold trend will happen. Since we are currently in a warm trend, I have a little more faith in the potential for moisture to be transported into the Midwest. Otherwise, the Evansville Metro will have potential clouds over the area next weekend.

In conclusion, the warmer air surge will end this week. I think it was planned for Christmas! The atmosphere sleeps during Christmas this week while Santa awakens to hand out presents, then re-emerges when Santa goes back to sleep. Overall, enjoy the rest of this Christmas week because be ready when the next Low system strikes!


Have a wonderful Christmas and New Year!


Meteorologist Sean Danaher


Keeping you informed at home or on the go!


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