Purpose:
This extended forecast (10-14 days out) is supposed to help you see what we could expect to see on Friday (October 4th, 2019) to Tuesday (October 8th, 2019). I will include a public discussion which will be quick and short. The other discussion I will provide is a technique where I will dive more into what sources I used, my opinion, and a small educational experience. The area we will look at will be the Metro area which includes:
· Southern Illinois
· Southern and Southwest Indiana
· Western and Northern Kentucky
Always keep in mind to be flexible with the weather and it may change by the time October 4th arrives. I hope this assists with planning long-term events and be sure to check out the Metro Weather Watch (MWW) Facebook Page.
Public:
The morning of Friday (October 4th) looks to be the aftermath of a thunderstorm system that passed on the 3rd. A breezy and cloudy day should be expected throughout the morning as temperatures decline to cooler conditions. As Saturday (October 5th) approaches, a High-pressure system will enter the area, but temperatures will continue to be cooler. With cooler temperatures along with High-pressure system in the morning, little moisture will be available This high will stay in the Metro area most of the day and overnight. will appear Sunday morning (October 6th) but will quickly dissipate by the afternoon to evening because of the pressure system. Even Monday (October 7th) will continue to experience the high-pressure system across the Metro area. It will not be until Tuesday (October 8th) where we could see potential showers Northwest across the Metro area.
Technical:
Using the Model Analysis and Guidance, I used GEFS-MEAN-SPRD and GFS model. They were the 2 models that could extend out 10 – 15 days. College of DuPage numerical models was also used in this process.
Due to being post-frontal on Friday, this explains why it will be windy throughout Friday morning. At 250mb, the Metro area will be on the exit region of a strong jet core. The winds switching from West to NE is a veering profile thus suggesting Warm Air Advection (WAA). This will bring in warmer air and moisture aloft, but will not be enough for any precipitation. Only clouds will be likely throughout the day. Temperatures will still continue to be cooler but get only slightly warmer by the afternoon to evening. Saturday shows to be very similar, but wind direction will be NE to West suggesting a backing wind profile. Backing wind suggests Cold Air Advection (CAA) which will prolong cooler temperatures aloft and at the surface. This will continue to be throughout the day, and our area will no longer be in a jet stream. Not being in a jet stream extends the time of the high-pressure system. This provides a chance for temperatures to rise back up to the 70s. Moisture will also tag along leading to a partly cloudy day on Sunday morning. These would be your high and middle-level clouds, but they will dissipate very quickly as the day proceeds. By Monday, temperatures will be much warmer at the surface. A second jet streak will approach and clouds are expected to appear overnight. Winds will switch to a backing profile on Tuesday evening setting up a possible precipitation event for the next day.
In conclusion, the high-pressure system takes up most of this extended forecast discussion. The main reason this happens is because of a ridge that covers the entire CONUS between 00Z Saturday, Oct 5th to 06Z Tuesday, Oct. 8th. (Shown below)
Though it's not extremely fascinating, it does show a potential rain event after Tuesday. Furthermore, I have looked at the 12Z GFS model, and the jet core is shifting more and more at 250mb. However, the ridge continues to be the most noticeable part throughout the entire process. This makes me still believe the Metro area will be in a prolonged high-pressure until Wednesday, October 9th.
Meteorologist Sean Danaher
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