Purpose:
This extended forecast (10-14 days out) is supposed to help you see what we could expect to see on Friday (November 15th, 2019) to Monday (November 18th, 2019). The area we will look at will be the Metro area which includes:
· Southern Illinois
· Southern and Southwest Indiana
· Western and Northern Kentucky
Always keep in mind to be flexible with the weather as it will likely change. This includes any upper air analysis. I hope this gives insight into what we see and be sure to check out the Metro Weather Watch (MWW) Facebook Page.
Discussion:
Good Evening!
On Frid., Nov. 15th cold-weather looks to fall short into the weekend with temperatures trying to bounce back into the 40s. This can be especially seen on Friday, and the days approaching.
The potential for any precipitation is little in my opinion even though the GFS shows it Friday morning. Saturday, Nov. 16th could also be in the lower 40s or upper 30s. From looking at the GFS, no precipitation is seen to hit the ground. Sunday, Nov. 17th looks to be in the upper 40s, according to the GFS, but I think it will be slightly lower. Precipitation may fall overnight and it looks to be rain. Severity is small according to the GFS. Monday, Nov. 18th could be in the upper 40s with rain showers in the morning and decreasing over time. Now the question that remains is what will happen in the upper atmosphere (500mb)?
It seems like after the arctic air this week and the beginning of next week will fall short as mentioned earlier. This may be due to the warm gulf trying to fight back the colder air after the arctic air passes through the midwest. Though the cold air will not recede for long because I believe another burst of cold air could appear at the end of November. This is because we are seen a more active atmosphere at the end of October approached. Take a look at the current 500mb upper air image. Colder sectors will continue to feed onto the current cold sector (green arrow) keeping it over the Dakotas and Canada (white circle). Only a few pinches enter into the midwest.
Furthermore, continuous fluctuations in temperature will help with any storm development if moisture is available. Overall, the confidence in this forecast is below average because a lot will depend on the influence of the arctic blast.
Meteorologist Sean Danaher
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