According to the GFS, moisture seems to enter over the Evansville Metro and Tri-state area for next weekend.
Ensemble members (GFS, Euro, and GEFS) have a trend of warmer air aloft at the 500mb pressure level shown below.
This means surface temperatures will be quite warm next week as we enter Christmas sadly. After taking a look at the GFS, you do see it occur throughout next week.
A Low system will form due to a cold sector entering after Christmas from Low pressures off the Pacific Coast. This Low will not form until much later, but moisture is already available because of the amount of warming that could take place. Therefore, Friday, Dec. 27 looks to have rain showers on and off all day until the afternoon. I wouldn’t be surprised if future runs from the GFS would push it back afternoon or evening on Friday, Dec. 27. On Saturday, Dec. 28, it may also have rain. This is from the same system, but with a possibility of thunderstorms. Being close to the center Saturday morning strong winds and gusts will be with this system. By Saturday afternoon to evening, thunderstorms stop because we enter the backside of the storm. As we enter the backside of the system, strong winds will occur overnight with colder temperatures next. What is interesting is the GFS has a snow prediction on Sunday, Dec. 28, but I think don’t think it will happen. The reason is we enter some dry periods in this system thus snow has to get through the dryer layers aloft before getting to the ground. If it reaches the surface, it may likely be flurries or light snow. All the moisture for rain is East while the snow stays North. What needs to be a concern is road conditions due to potential freezing from all the rain that could fall. This leads Sunday, Dec. 29 having much cooler temperatures during the day and overnight. Monday, Dec. 30 will be cold from the cold front that struck with this system.
Have a great day!
Keeping you informed at home or on the go, this is meteorologist Sean Danaher!
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