Good Evening!
Senior Lead Meteorologist Mike Estwick here with you, to have a look at how we can expect our weather to shape up for the remainder of Spring 2020.
We are only about a month away from the Summer solstice, when we’ll have exactly 12 hours of daylight and darkness at the earth’s Equator. That happens on Saturday, June 20th, 4:43 PM CDT. For us in the Metro Weather Watch area, that means the first day of Summer, but it also means that the days will start getting shorter from there on. We’re still quite a ways away from when that will start to be a noticeable thing though, so let’s look at what we can expect for the next month!
SEVERE WEATHER: We are in the prime season for severe weather in our part of the country, as severe setups transition away from primarily Dixie Alley to our south, and head west to the Great Plains and traditional Tornado Alley. What we have to watch for are systems coming out of southern Illinois and Missouri (think Joplin in 2011, or even the June 2, 1990 outbreak for example). That said, severe forecasting is tricky to begin with, even more so when you try to go out a month in time. Looking at global forecast model data, I really don’t see anything that would indicate a setup for a major event or outbreak now or into June, just your usual summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms so prevalent in the US during the warm season. As you well know, these can become strong or even severe from time to time. For the next eight days, we are only expecting garden variety scattered showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center currently has no severe risk outlined.
TEMPERATURES: For the next week or so, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting IL, IN, OH, and KY to be above normal for temperatures. As we transition to June, the outlook changes to readings not straying far from seasonal averages. Some forecast data is hinting at readings being cooler than what we usually see as well. Based on the near normal CPC temperature forecast, it won’t take much for that to happen. I didn’t see in the forecast data where the Bermuda High is expected to back way west and park near or over the Southeastern US. When that happens, then you need to worry about a stifling heat wave. That pattern usually doesn’t set up until late into July or August though. Here’s a look at the CPC maps outlining the predictions.
And here’s the one month map, for the month of June…
According to this forecast, the heat is where you’d typically expect it, out in the Rockies and Desert Southwest, and down in the Florida Panhandle as well.
PRECIPITATION: The Climate Prediction Center also suggests that we’ll be wetter than normal for the month of June. The current pattern certainly lends credibility to that, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon right through the end of this week. I think this could well persist into the first week of June or beyond. We’ll have a couple of periods of dry weather around mid-month, but those won’t last too long. I would plan on a bumper crop of mosquitoes and needing to mow a bit more frequently. Here’s the map for the June precipitation forecast.
To sum it up, near normal temperatures, with a chance of slightly below normal as well, above average rainfall, and no big time severe weather events that we can see this far out are how your June stacks up at this time.
I’m Senior Lead Meteorologist Mike Estwick, for Metro Weather Watch.
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