First Measurable Snowfall On The Way! Followed By The Coldest Air Of The Season (Arctic Air).

Good morning! Models still appear to be in pretty good agreement on the measurable snow chances on Monday. We will start the day with some showers moving thru southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Those showers will continue to advance to the east, into northern and south central Kentucky thru the morning hours. As we head into the afternoon, the NAM-WRF model (pictured below) shows that rain beginning to mix with snow and transition to all snow by mid to late afternoon from northwest to southeast and spread over southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, western, northern and south central Kentucky.

As far as accumulations are concerned, I think in general anywhere from a dusting to an inch is a good first call. Some areas may see up to 2 inches, especially in areas along and near the Ohio River. The NAM-WRF model shows an inch or less, with isolated 2 inch amounts possible. it's even showing some 3 inch amounts in there as well.

The GFS is showing possible accumulations of up to 2 inches in a broader area across our region.

The European Model (ECMWF) has the same general idea, with up to 2 inches possible in spots.

Cold arctic air will be the bigger story, as temperatures will fall thru the day on Monday and plummet to around 30 by evening. A flash freeze will be a concern, as temperatures begin to fall. This will be a big factor into how much snow can accumulate. The colder we can get the ground temperature, the more snow will accumulate on area road and impact the evening rush. Winds will gust to near 30 mph at times, creating wind chills in the single digits Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Temperatures crashing to around 30 by evening.

Bitter cold low temperatures Tuesday morning in the in the middle teens.

Very cold high temperatures on tuesday afternoon, may not get out of the middle 20's! Brrrrr......It will be brisk and windy.

Wind chills Tuesday morning Possibly down near zero to the middle single digits.

Wind chills on Tuesday afternoon in the middle teens.

That's gonna do it for this forecast blog. Be sure to check back for more updates. Have a great morning!