The weather across mid-February looks to be interesting across the Evansville Metro. It seems like we may be dealing with a fair amount of multiple Low systems next week into the weekend. For instance, the GFS has potential showers hitting the Evansville Metro at the beginning of the week (Monday, Feb. 10) followed up by thunderstorms and showers mid-week (Wednesday, Feb. 12 and Thursday, Feb. 13). However, the GFS seems to show a more cold bias overall. The recent model run from the GFS is also very aggressive with the development of future Low systems at the end of next week into the weekend. This poses a potential challenge because as more models are considered, the GFS will be a possible outlier in the future. That means I will do my best to predict the weather in this Long-Range Outlook with the data given for next weekend using the GFS.
Friday, Feb. 14, looks to have high temps in the mid to upper 60s with low temps in the lower 30s. After a Low system exits Thursday, Feb. 13, it seems like not cold air will appear afterward. The reason is another Low system seems to follow-up bringing potential showers and thunderstorms the next morning. According to the GFS, winds pick up afterward as this new Low system travels north causing gusts to possibly be in the 20s – 30s (Just a guess). Colder air surges in by Saturday. Thus, Saturday, Feb. 15 may have high temperatures getting into the 40s, and lows in the mid-20s. Sunday, Feb. 16 could see temps reaching the mid-30s and dropping overnight. This is what I mean by a potential cold bias. The previous GFS run (12Z run) did not show this until late Sunday night. Monday, Feb. 17 may look to have temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
In conclusion, my confidence in this Long-Range Outlook is below average. The GFS model is one of the only models I can use besides the GEFS model. After comparing the 12ZGFS model run and the 18ZGFS model run, it seems clear that everything will depend on each Low system that passes. Ground Hog Day was earlier this week, and I wonder if the lore is true. From what I can tell you from this long-range forecast, it seems like we may experience temperatures like this past weekend. I am certain multiple Low systems will interact next week. Overall, we will continue to investigate this at the end of this week and next week. Have a great day!
Meteorologist Sean Danaher
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