The weather seems to be all over the place towards the end of February. There is a chance of 2 Low systems moving through the area next week. According to the GFS, the first Low system enters the beginning of next week on Sunday, Feb. 23 to Monday night. Currently, it looks like rain will be falling with little to no severity. The next Low system will hit on Wednesday, Feb 26. The GFS currently shows no rain appearing near the Evansville Metro, but a significant amount of warming due to the Low being over Iowa. I do think that if enough moisture is available for potential rain to fall in the Evansville Metro. It will likely be the aftermath of the 2nd low that leads to a slightly cold March beginning. With all of this in mind, let’s take a look at next weekend.
Friday, Feb. 28 could have high temps in the 30s with lows in the mid-20s. Temperatures will rebound back into the upper 40s on Saturday, Feb. 29 (Leap Day) with lows reaching the mid-20s. Warmer air seems to bounce back very quickly according to the GFS. Sunday, March 1, could have high temps in the upper 30s with lows in the mid-20s. Monday, March 2, could have high temps in the upper 30s with lows in the lower 30s. After looking at all the temperatures, overall temperatures range into the 30s and 40s. Ensemble systems do support this according to the GFS and GEFS anomalies.
In conclusion, cold temperatures that enter next weekend comes from a longwave being able to deepen from both Low systems. Low systems that are close together pose potential rain in areas that the GFS may not pick up until future model runs. What we do know is any type of precipitation seems to happen much earlier in the week with colder temperatures later. Do be aware that some of these will likely change as more models are looked at later. It is worthy to note that we could continue to see a flood watch/warning into next week, so be prepared. Have a good Tuesday!
Meteorologist Sean Danaher
Keeping you informed at home or on the go!
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