Good Evening!
The forecast for cold arctic air continues to be on track for the end of this week. With the cold sector moving downward (arrow) after looking at the 500mb height, it seems quite clear to us that it looks almost inevitable that temperatures will drop into the low 30s and 20s.
Thursday. While the GFS and GEM-GDPS show a similar output at 2-meter temperature, the type of precipitation is different.
On one hand, the GFS shows only rain while the GEM shows rain turning to snow.
If the metro area experiences rain overnight today and Wednesday night, this moisture will be a major contributor later this week. Therefore, the possibility of rain turning to snow Thursday night should not be ignored due to temperatures dropping as the day progresses. With colder air temperature approaching, lake-effect snow could contribute from the Ohio River. Although it usually occurs with lakes, I think there is enough of a temperature difference between the air warmer water to cause this on Thursday especially when there are immediate drops in temperature. If no precipitation of snow occurs, then flurries will be a possible second contender. The temperature drops like this, if it happens Thursday, look to follow into the weekend and possibly next week because of another arctic system moving in the midwest.
This can be well spotted on the GFS and GEM-GDPS for Sunday, Nov. 10th and Monday, Nov. 11th with temperatures seen in the lower getting to the lower 20s. Temperatures are well below average. Although this is way further out, a hint of another rain to snow event could be possible again next week.
So it seems like temperatures will not get any warmer. Is this the same one or is it another rush of cold air? We will continue further analysis and investigation from all the models for this week and the following week ahead.
Meteorologist Sean Danaher
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