Good evening! Hope everyone is having a great one out there, as we close out another cooler than average day, which featured high temperatures right around 60. Frost Advisories are up for area's to the north and east of the Evansville Metro area at the time of this writing. Those current advisories will run from 1 AM CDT till 8 AM CDT AND 2 AM EDT till 9 AM EDT. Just some patchy frost expected in the Evansville Metro area. Overnight lows across the coverage are expected to be in the middle to upper 30's.
Allergy sufferers will begin to get some relief from the ragweed. After some recent frosty mornings, ragweed has begun to die off and will no longer be a big issue from Friday on. Therefore, the allergy forecast has been discontinued until next Spring. Current allergy forecast shows medium levels, but that will likely be revised, due to the expected frost, that will pretty much wipe out the ragweed.
We continue to keep an eye on Monday, when there is some potential for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The pattern will begin to become unsettled as we get into Monday. Gulf moisture will be streaming into the region and this will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Some of the data wants to bring the cold front through early in the day. If this scenario plays out, that will limit the severe threat (if any). But if the fronts timing is later in the afternoon, this would increase the chances for some stronger storms. The main limiting factor would be the CAPE, which is currently at the minimum threshold for this time of year (400-500 j/kg). This is supportive of at least a low end severe threat. Isolated damaging winds would be the primary concern and an isolated spin up tornado would not be out of the question, if current data verifies. CAPE (instability) graphic pictured below is the GEFS ensemble members. The average CAPE is about 400-500 j/kg. The maximum CAPE from a couple of ensemble members is about 800-1000 j/kg. More members currently favor the lessor CAPE.
The GEFS CIPS Analog-Based Severe Probability data verifies at least a POTENTIAL low end severe threat. This will stay the same or change as we get closer to Monday. Currently it is showing 15% severe probabilities for the region.
Current wind threat is at 15%.
Current hail threat is at 5%
Current tornado threat is 2%-5%. 2% is marginal.
Note.....This is not a forecast! This is just what the current GEFS CIPS are showing. Right now it does look like some heavy rainfall may become the overall concern. But keep in mind that a lot can change between now and then. This system will get sampled on Saturday. The models will have a much better feel as to how things may evolve across the region.
As we head into the latter part of October, several shots of cooler and colder air will slide through the region. The coldest air of the season so far, looks to reach our area just in time for Halloween. That's right! The kiddo's may be sporting those coats, with those costumes for Halloween. Some data even hints at possibly the first flakes of the season! We shall see!
Well that's gonna do it for this blog. I hope you guys enjoy reading these. Be sure and follow us throughout the week for updates on the possibility for some storms on Monday. Have a great night!
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