Good Evening!
Senior Lead Meteorologist Mike Estwick here for Metro Weather Watch, and we're taking a look at the possibility of a super soaker or even severe weather for early next week.
Let me start out by saying this forecast WILL change, as we are still three-plus days out from Monday. The forecast models have converged on solutions that allow us to say that we will get some rain Monday afternoon and evening into Tuesday. After that, we start getting into scenarios.
The GFS forecast model is suggesting that for Tuesday in to Wednesday, a robust surface low tracks northeast coming out of Mississippi and across Tennessee. If that solution pans out, we would definitely get some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these would bring torrential rains and perhaps severe wind gusts or small hail.
If you ask the European forecast model, it says not so fast. The Timing of the system is slower and the track of the low is much further south. This solution would mean showers or just steady rain with only the mention of a rumble of thunder or two. This solution is almost 24 hours slower than the GFS. So if this one were to pan out, we'd be pretty much sitting that one out aside from the aforementioned showers.
The GEM, or Canadian model, seems to be leaning toward siding with the Euro. Slower timing (midnight Thursday Morning), and just as far south or even further with the surface low track. We would get steady rains some periods of showers and that's about it.
To sum it all up, we will see some rain Monday. It looks like a twin-barreled event, with one hit early in the day, then a second round in the evening. After that, the next big rain and chance for severe weather comes through Tuesday PM into Wednesday (or later depending on which model you look at). What we will be watching for you here at Metro Weather Watch is the timing of Monday's rain, and the track plus timing of the mid-week event, as for now, that looks like the one with a better risk of strong or severe storms. We'll keep you advised.
Keeping you informed at home or on the go, I'm Senior Lead Meteorologist Mike Estwick, Metro Weather Watch.
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