Good Saturday Evening to you all. Today, we had a nice day across the region with mostly sunny skies during the morning hours before some cloud cover moved in throughout the afternoon. Tonight, expect Party Cloudy skies to continue with low temperatures in the upper 40's to lower 50's across the viewing area.
We are continuing to monitor a strong cold front that will come toward the region Monday afternoon into Monday evening. We are monitoring this system because it could aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the viewing area. As of right now, we are not expecting any severe weather but the possibility is still there. Some stronger storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, so localized flooding is also possible.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to have much of the viewing area in a MARGINAL RISK for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday morning into Monday afternoon. This does include both the Evansville and Louisville Metro area. Damaging winds remain the primary potential hazard. An isolated spin up tornado or two can't be ruled out with this setup but the overall threat is extremely low. Convection ahead of the system normally limits the development of severe thunderstorms and we are confident that will likely be the case on Monday. However, things can change to continue to check back with the blog for any updates.
The ECMWF rainfall model has
rainfall totals around an inch to 1.5 across the viewing area. Any locally stronger storms could produce heavier amounts.
We are still expecting cooler air to move in behind the front. Current data keeps our region in the upper 50's to early 60's on Tuesday. We'll monitor to how cool the air will be behind the front in new data in later model runs.
Looking ahead to later parts of the month, models are still on board with cooler air. There have been some hints of winter precipitation in previous model runs. In the latest run, any precipitation during that timeframe looks to arrive before sufficient cold air for winter precipitation comes in. An active and interesting pattern change does look likely and of course, we'll monitor any changes.
If you made it to the end of the blog, thanks for reading through. That's about it for me on this update. Follow Metro Weather Watch daily, for accurate and dependable updates for southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western, northern, south central Kentucky. Like us on our Facebook page if you haven't already done so. Have a great evening.
Comments