Good evening! Hope everyone enjoyed the cooler temperatures out there today. As I mentioned in my last blog, temperatures may struggle if the clouds lingered long enough. We did manage to make it to 56 degrees in Evansville. The clouds then thickened, cooling temperatures into the upper 40's.
As we head into tonight, low temperatures are expected to settle into the 30's for overnight lows. The HRRR model takes lows into the middle and upper 30's.
The NAM-WRF and NAM 12 km models are just a touch cooler and a touch warmer in spots.
The weekend is looking warmer. Friday we will see highs warming to the middle and upper 60's and low to mid 70's across the entire coverage area on Saturday and Sunday. We add in some humidity, as dew points climb into the lower and middle 60's (Shown in the graphic).
A potent storm system will move into the region on Monday, bringing with it, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to the lower Ohio Valley. With it being 5 days out, models are still working out the timing. As it stand at this moment, this looks to be a potential afternoon event. Still too soon to get into specifics, but all severe modes possibly in play. A lot will depend on timing. Instability would be a potential limiting factor. A lot can change between now and then.
The CIPS Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance
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