Purpose:
This extended forecast (10-14 days out) is supposed to help you see what we could expect to see on Friday (November 1st, 2019) to Monday (November 4th, 2019). The area we will look at will be the Metro area which includes:
· Southern Illinois
· Southern and Southwest Indiana
· Western and Northern Kentucky
Always keep in mind to be flexible with the weather as it will likely change. This includes any upper air analysis. I hope this assists with planning, and be sure to check out the Metro Weather Watch (MWW) Facebook Page.
Public/Technical Discussion:
Temperatures for the beginning of November look to be much cooler across the metro. This is especially seen as we enter into Friday, November 1st with possible temperatures in the upper or lower 40s. Saturday may also look like this as temperatures continue to stay cooler. The cloud cover for these two days will be fairly similar as both will be partly cloudy or cloudy. This can be noticed after looking at GFS Skew-T plots. However, Saturday night into Sunday morning shows a storm system. The potential for a thunderstorm or isolated thunderstorms is likely across parts of the metro early Sunday morning. This is because of available moisture from the SW moving to the NE, and the upward motion. Precipitation type will most likely be rain due to temperatures being in the 40s according to the GFS. The reason temperatures stay above the 30s is because of the gulf coast influence and the jet stream helping bring warm air into the metro. But the rest of Sunday will be mostly cloudy with temperatures above the 50s. By Monday, temperatures will be in the upper 50s or even 60s. Cloud cover will be mostly cloudy with a small chance of rain occurring in the southern part of the metro. It will most likely occur during the evening. However, the entire metro is not free as the next storm will be big associated with a low-pressure system located in the Dakotas. This next storm entering will be another one that brings in much colder air as we enter into the rest of the week.
In conclusion, a couple of possible rain events could occur during this forecast event. From tracking at my own previous extended forecasts, I seem to be off for precipitation events. This is why I believe that the forecast for any precipitation event will be much sooner than anticipated. I believe precipitation will begin Saturday night rather than early Sunday morning. It will also depend on how strong the jet core gets at the 250mb level, where vorticity and moisture will be on the CONUS. This also applies to the next big storm with the low over the Dakotas. I think that it may actually be on Monday, November 4th rather than on Tuesday, November 5th.
Meteorologist Sean Danaher
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