Good evening! A pleasantly cool Sunday is wrapping up across the lower Ohio Valley region. Today we saw high temperatures only make it to the lower and middle 50's, under a mix of sun and high clouds. We now turn our attention to a couple of storm systems headed for the region. The first will affect parts of the coverage area as early as Wednesday evening, with only minor chances for showers, with chances increasing Wednesday night and becoming likely by Thursday morning, decreasing by afternoon.
Friday appears to be the day in question. WIDE model differences currently exist on Friday. We'll point out each one and start with the GEM (Canadian Model).
The GEM has been consistent in showing a potential rain changing to light snow scenario on Friday (11-8), with light accumulations in southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western, northern and south central Kentucky. Note.... The GEM has been performing well lately, so I wouldn't write off what it's doing for Friday. It does bear watching.
The GFS has a much further south solution. One I think is too far south and will correct north over time, tracks light snow right along and south of the Ohio River and with less moisture than the GEM model.
One of the many things we look at behind the scenes are the GEFS (GFS) Ensemble members. As you can see, there is no clear agreement among the ensembles at this time for Thursday. Some show snow, some show all rain and a few show little to no precip.
The ECMWF (European Model) 12z run currently shows All rain for Thursday and is much further north with any snow potential. We will monitor the data for agreement among all the models around mid week and see if the rain changing to snow scenario pans out.
The time frame we are really keeping a watch for is around the 12th of this month. As you recall, yesterday the GFS was showing possibly some snow. Todays GFS model runs have backed off. That's not surprising. I did mention the models would change with it being too far out. Today, that still holds true. But the current 18z run of the GFS is now south of the Ohio River. I also think this potential scenario is too dry and too far south. With colder air moving in, I think this will correct overtime, as we get closer to that period.
The ECMWF (European Model) 12z run is currently showing chances for possible accumulating snow on Monday (11-11), as a potent cold front swings in from the north. This is pretty close to the setup that the GFS was showing in Saturday's blog post. We will watch the trends over the next several days. Nothing is set in stone, with this still about a week out.
Arctic air will move in on Monday (11-11) as the day progresses according to this particular model. The ECMWF model is dropping our lows into the middle and upper teens Monday night. High temperatures on Tuesday not getting out of the 20's.
The GFs, which was showing some very impressive arctic air for the time of year for Monday (11-11) has backed off on the intensity of the cold air (for now). It is more in line with the ECMWF in terms of highs and lows. Regardless how it evolves, it's going to be cold either way! Colder than what we are use to seeing for November.
Keep in mind that none of this is a forecast and certainly not hype. We are not forecasting a snowstorm. We are watching the model trends for the potential for wintry weather. The upcoming pattern is one in which supports wintry weather, if things come together right. Follow us daily, for the latest updates.
Have a great evening!
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